Scouting for Celtic - Right Wingers

The last dance for a painful January window...

So, last written ‘transfer’ piece for January.

Aside from a well published move for Jocelin Ta Bi that crashed and burned in typical Celtic fashion, there have scarce been rumours or links to right-sided attackers. We’ve had an underwhelming link to Ignacio Laquintana of RB Bragantino, a furore of supporters demanding Celtic sign Tawanda Maswanhise from Motherwell; but it feels like there’s been about twenty different strikers linked and hardly any right wingers.

For this article, I decided to take a different approach when finding and profiling players. I usually just pool players from a selection of leagues that Celtic have shopped in before, or that I think are of a reasonable enough quality for a smooth transition to Celtic and Scotland.

But then I thought well, there is still a lot of value elsewhere that I may be missing out. I don’t usually include the Americas, or 2^nd tier leagues from the ‘big five’ nations. So for this article, I profiled players on a regional basis. I compiled divisions from nine different regions across the world into their own datasets:

- UK and Ireland

- Scandinavia and Baltics

- Benelux and Alpine Countries

- Central and Eastern Europe

- Balkans

- Southern Europe

- North Africa

- South America

- Northern and Central America

From each of these regions, I took the top ranking 25% and compiled them into a mixed dataset that was essentially the best performing players from each region. I made some adjustments such as only using the top five South American divisions, using 2^nd tier divisions for the bigger European leagues etc.

This gave me a varied list of players. Some were very impressive but have to be taken with context. For example, there was a player in the Macedonian league who was in the top 10% of the final dataset – but the Macedonian league is of a significantly lower quality than say, the Belgian league. It’s still mightily impressive, but if that player was going to be targeted for transfer there would have to be a lot more analysis undertaken to make sure it wasn’t going to be a total mis-profiling.

The age range of this dataset was 18-26, and the minimum minutes cutoff was 900. I usually try and stay over 1000, but some leagues were calendar-year based and have already finished whereas others are only halfway through, so I brought it down slightly to try and adjust for that fact. In total there were 370 players across all of the regions, and after taking the top 25% from each region the final dataset was comprised of 96 right wingers.

And, if you follow me on Twitter you’ll know that I’ve started assessing players through weighted categories relating to key positional qualities. It’s the same here, but I’ll break down each individual metric within the relevant category.

These are the players that stood out for me, and that I think could be suitable and sensible targets for Celtic.

#1 – Nikita Iosifov (NK Celje)

We have been linked to Nikita Iosifov’s teammate at NK Celje, Franko Kovacevic (who as of writing looks to be heading to Ferencvaros). Kovacevic’s impressive goal record this season may have been aided by the ability of his teammate on the wing.

Strengths

Dribbling and Ball Carrying – 96^th percentile

Iosifov is above average at the 66^th percentile for Dribbles per 90, but in the 99^th percentile for Dribble Success Rate and 100^th percentile for Offensive Duels Success Rate. He is also in the 84^th percentile for Progressive Runs per 90 and Accelerations per 90, suggesting real progressive intent and possible explosiveness when moving with the ball.

Chance Creation – 95^th percentile

99^th percentile for Expected Assists per 90 says a lot, and 86^th percentile for Key Passes per 90 backs up his ability to create shooting opportunities.

Penalty Box Threat – 91^st percentile

He looks to be a danger inside the penalty box ranking in the 99^th percentile for Touches in Penalty Area per 90, and an 85^th and 82^nd percentile ranking for Non-Penalty Goals per 90 and Non-Penalty xG per 90 suggest there is a goal threat to boot.

Penetrative Passing – 80^th percentile

His passing likely contributes to the strong showing creatively. 99^th percentile for Deep Completions per 90 (in simpler terms, passes to the danger zone of the penalty area), 87^th percentile for Smart Passes per 90, and 88^th percentile for Passes to Penalty Area Success Rate.

Possession Efficiency – 90^th percentile

This category aims to drown out the noise of volume and look purely at efficiency rates. As touched on previously, the high rankings in Dribbling and Offensive Duels Success Rate contribute to a high overall ranking for this, but it is helped by an 80^th percentile ranking in Forward Passing Success Rate.

Weaknesses

He doesn’t really have any standout weaknesses offensively. He ranked lowest in the dataset for Through Passing Success Rate, but that’s about it. Defensively there isn’t much to shout about, but that’s not the key measurement for a winger.

Iosifov should be within Celtic’s price range, it hasn’t been publicised how much Ferencvaros are paying for Kovacevic but Celje may be reluctant to sell another key attacker.

If Celtic want to shop in these ‘hidden gem’ markets and the leagues which often hide them, I think Iosifov could be a great option. At age 24 he is at a solid stage in his development, and could make an impact in a struggling Celtic team while maintaining growth for future resale value - which ultimately is a key factor in modern day Celtic recruitment.

#2 – Fares Ghedjemis (Frosinone)

We now head to Serie B, the second division of Italy to look at Fares Ghedjemis who is currently at Frosinone. Shopping in the top tier of the ‘big five’ leagues isn’t something that I think is sensible for Celtic, but the second divisions are a different story. The wages are more comparable to what Celtic can/will pay, and the prospect for players to showcase their ability on a European scale may be more attractive.

Strengths

Dribbling and Ball Carrying – 100^th percentile

Ghedjemis is a very strong dribbler. He was above the 90^th percentile in Dribbles per 90, Progressive Runs per 90, Accelerations per 90, and Offensive Duels per 90. He appears to like running with the ball and taking on defenders. Ranking in the 87^th percentile for Dribble Success Rate and the 88^th Percentile for Offensive Duel Success Rate, he is both aggressive and successful in this area.

Chance Creation – 93^rd Percentile

In Expected Assists per 90, Ghedjemis ranked in the 79^th percentile, and this was supplemented by an 85^th percentile ranking in Shot Assists per 90 and a 93^rd Percentile Ranking for Key Passes per 90. He looks to have a strong involvement in creating shooting opportunities.

Penalty Box Threat – 80^th percentile

Ghedjemis is ranked 95^th for Touches in Penalty Area, so he gets into the box a lot. 89^th percentile for Non-Penalty Goals per 90 and 72^nd percentile for Non-Penalty xG per 90 suggests a good ability to score and get chances – however, he does take a lot of shots (84^th percentile) and the xG per Shot ranking isn’t too great (33^rd percentile) so there is a possibility of accumulative xG here rather than consistent shooting from quality positions.

Possession Efficiency – 95^th percentile

Similar to Iosifov, it is a strong ranking in the dribbling and offensive duel success rates that contribute to the high overall score here – however, Ghedjemis has really strong showings for passing success rates. 93^rd percentile for Forward Passing Success Rate, and 84^th percentile for Short/Medium Passing Success Rate. He comes across like a player who is efficient in both moving with the ball and passing the ball.

Weaknesses

Crossing – 26^th percentile

Ghedjemis just missed the cutoff for what I consider clear weaknesses, 25^th percentile or less – however, given the drop off from his other attacking strengths I felt it pertinent to at least acknowledge. He sits just above average for Crosses per 90 but is way down in the 14^th percentile for Crossing Success Rate.

While it wasn’t a clear strength, he did show up pretty well for Penetrative Passing indicators, with the standout individual metrics being 89^th percentile for Deep Completions per 90 and 95^th percentile for Through Passing Success Rate – so, there is maybe the viewpoint that he operates as more of an inside playmaker than a touchline winger which would explain the discrepancy of the Crossing data.

Defensive Contribution – 1^st percentile

None of the wingers I will look at here are very good defensively – it’s not something that I think is terribly important and is probably more influenced by team dynamics – but Ghedjemis was so low, way way down in the 1^st percentile that it felt dishonest not to at least mention it. He’s in the 1^st percentile or lower in four out of the five metrics that comprise the overall Defensive Contribution score; so, definitely the main issue in his game…

However, this aside – there is enough here that I think he would be an asset to Celtic’s attack. He is a young player that I think could be tempted to come if the move was sold in the right way, and he would definitely add a different dynamic to that right hand side of attack. I’m unsure of what his price tag would be. Several different football sites have his market value sitting at under £1 million, but with Frosinone sitting top of the table and making a real go at promotion, he may be worth slightly more to them.

#3 – Damir Redzic (Dunajska Streda)

The last selection here is a player who recently has been linked to RB Salzburg, Copenhagen - and Rangers. They seem to be on the ball with recruitment this window and 22 year-old Damir Redzic - currently of Dunajska Streda in Slovakia - would probably be another sensible signing.

Strengths

Dribbling and Ball Carrying – 94^th percentile

Redzic was 86^th percentile for Dribbles per 90, 95^th for Dribbling Success Rate, 94^th for Offensive Duels Success Rate, and 82^nd for Progressive Runs per 90. It looks to be a major strength of his game, similar to the other selected players.

Chance Creation – 82^nd percentile

Sitting in the same percentile for Expected Assists per 90 as Ghedjemis (79^th), an 88^th percentile ranking for Shot Assists per 90 supplements this and cements him as a player who definitely has some creative value.

Penalty Box Threat – 77^th percentile

He ranks highly for Touches in Penalty Area (94^th percentile), Shots per 90 (94^th percentile) and Non-Penalty Goals per 90 (97^th percentile). It’s hard to tell if this is really good finishing or just variance, but he did rank all the way down in the 11^th percentile for xG per shot. There is evidence here that he is a threat in the opposition box but learning to shoot from better positions is something to work on for him.

Penetrative Passing – 78^th percentile

Redzic is just above average for Passes to Penalty Area per 90 and Through Passing Success Rate, but he shines in accuracy of Passes to Penalty Area and Deep Completions per 90, being in the 94^th and 96^th percentile of these respectively.

Possession Efficiency – 94^th percentile

Once again, it is strong showing for Dribbling and Offensive Duel Success Rates that stand out here – this is complemented by a decent ranking in Fouls Suffered per 90 (65^th percentile) and a good ranking in Forward Passing Success Rate (79^th percentile).

Weaknesses

There are no real notable weaknesses for Redzic overall. He isn’t perfect and there is some specifics of his game that he will need to improve, many of these I think are likely related to decision making which is natural for a young player. He is about the same in crossing as Iosifov, in that it isn’t a major strength but is by no means a major weakness.

Redzic looks to be reasonably in demand, and market value estimates range from £200k to £1.5million. I would be surprised if he stays put in Slovakia, given his performances and the clubs said to be in pursuit. I would like Celtic to join this list of clubs, but I’d also like to win the lottery and the odds are probably about the same for both.

Honourable Mentions

Helinho is a Brazilian winger currently playing in Mexico for Toluca, and he was the 2^nd best overall ranked winger in this dataset. His market value was a lot higher than the three mentioned in depth here – it wasn’t that high to be honest, in the grand scheme of football; but high enough that there is likely no way Celtic would part with that kind of money.

Assane Diatta was the aforementioned player in the Macedonian league – reasonable concerns perhaps about competitive dynamics and he was playing in a side that was relegated in 24/25, but I do think it is highly commendable that he was able to keep up statistically with some very good players in this dataset. Signing a player from the second division of Macedonia is incredibly Tony Bloom coded so, maybe one to keep an eye on.

Montader Madjed is in my opinion the winger we should have been looking at back in August. Madjed and Tounekti played in the same team at Hammarby, and Madjed is younger, has a much better output offensively, and is actually a right sided winger.

And lastly I’ll highlight Issame Chouaref at Sion, who looked like an effective winger in the traditional sense, very good in 1v1s and very good in crossing.

The search for a striker is perhaps the most visible glaring issue, but I don’t think just signing a striker will solve all our problems. I worry about our ability to create chances when met with an effective opponent, which we have seen numerous times this season and was exemplified by the recent match against Falkirk. We need quality reinforcements in the wide areas.

This will be the last article of this sort that I write for this transfer window, I’ve covered the positions that we are rumoured to be targeting players for – we probably need a lot more than just these but that’s never going to happen.

I think we will get one, maybe two at a push – but whether they will be of requisite quality is in serious doubt.

I hope these have been enjoyable to read, and I thank you for your time reading them. Hopefully by the next time one of these is written during the summer window, we will have hit the reset button and be looking forward to a season of change at Celtic. One can only hope.